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When Climate Changes meets the Ski Boot industry
In a world of growing climate uncertainty, one question seems obvious: does warming weather reduce demand for winter sports gear? Intuition says yes—but data tells a more complex story.
At Nearby Group, we value research that challenges assumptions. That’s why we’re proud to highlight the work of Angelica Cervi, whose thesis in Statistics at the University of Padua—developed with Plastidue S.r.l.—asked: are rising European temperatures reshaping the trade flows of ski boots?
What the data says
Angelica combined two decades of data: Eurostat’s ski boot trade statistics and European temperature trends from Our World in Data. Using predictive models like Holt exponential smoothing and ARIMA, she projected trade patterns through 2029 to see how temperature shifts might influence demand.
The results? Climate plays a role—but not the starring one. While warmer winters can dampen enthusiasm for skiing, broader factors such as global demand, consumer trends and events like COVID-19 had a far greater impact. In fact, the pandemic reshaped markets so dramatically that temperature trends seemed almost secondary.
Climate as context, not destiny
The takeaway isn’t that climate can be ignored. Rather, it’s a background force—slow-moving, significant, but intertwined with many others. For companies, that means integrating climate considerations into long-term planning and risk assessment, not treating them as isolated or immediate threats. Firms that understand this nuance will be better equipped to navigate uncertainty and design for resilience.
Why collaboration matters
This project also shows the power of connecting academy and industry. By linking statistical research with real-world trade data, Angelica’s work turns abstract analysis into practical insight—exactly the kind of collaboration that helps businesses anticipate change instead of reacting to it.
At Nearby Group, we see this kind of evidence-based thinking as essential to sustainable innovation. Climate change will continue to influence markets—sometimes subtly, sometimes sharply—but understanding its true role requires open-minded, data-driven inquiry.
Angelica’s work reminds us that foresight isn’t about predicting the future perfectly—it’s about asking better questions today.
We look forward to get in touch.
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